Wednesday, February 6, 2008

Some data:

I've compiled some numbers. Please tell me which of the primary states that McCain has won will he win in the General?

I'm pretty sure 25 electoral votes isn't going to get the job done.

Update: Bush won FL in 2000. I don't know how I got that wrong in my table. I don't think McCain would though. Also I accidently colored Clinton 96 red for AZ. Whoops.

For comparison, here's where Romney stands:

And Huckabee:

Clearly Huckabee is way ahead in winning states he could actually carry in November. But what remaining states could he win? And it is up for debate whether Huckabee would carry Tennessee and West Virgina. Not to mention who would win Arkansas in a Huck-Hillary match-up?

Update: Dem data



What seems clear from all this is a butt-kicking for Republicans this year. The Dems states are most likely interchangeable between the two candidates, with the possible exception of Arkansas. What I mean is, whichever Democratic candidate wins the primary will carry the blue states that are listed above. This puts the Dems at 173 electoral votes already.

Add to that the following blue states that have yet to vote:

Hawaii - 4
Maryland - 10
Oregon - 7
Pennsylvania - 21
Rhode Island - 4
Vermont - 3
Washington - 11
Wisconsin - 10

Then the Dems have 243 electoral votes. And as an Ohio native I can tell you that this state will go blue this year for another 20 electoral votes making their total 263. Considering the magic number to win is 270, I don't see any path to victory.

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