Wednesday, July 23, 2008

Civilizational Collapse - The Perfect Storm

Is complete civilizational collapse in our near future? It seems plausible.


Assumptions:


  1. Iran is feverishly working to develop nuclear weapons.

  2. Israel sees Iran's possession of nuclear weapons as an existential threat it cannot tolerate.

  3. Barack Obama has stated he would meet unconditionally with Iran to "open a dialogue" and persuade them to abandon their nuclear ambitions.

  4. Talks with Iran will only serve to delay any action and therefore guarantee they will have time to complete their bomb.

  5. Israel knows this.

Given these assumptions, what happens if Obama is elected on November 5th?


The Israelis will realize they have only until January 20th when Bush leaves office to act. If they wait they will no longer have a credible ally in the U.S. They have already war-gamed their plan and Iran already has a missile capable of reaching Tel Aviv.


Best guesses estimate that the Israeli aerial attack would effectively stall Iran's bomb-building efforts and set them back maybe a decade in their development.


But what happens next?


The Iranians would surely retaliate by unleashing Hezbollah and Hamas on Israel opening up a hot war on virtually every front. Rockets would rain down on Israeli towns and cities by the thousands daily with massive casualties on both sides. The situation in Israel would be unlivable and extremely difficult militarily with their forces stretched thin fighting terrorists in Jordan and the Palestinian territories as well as likely Egyptian forces in the south and Syrian forces in the north.


This desperate situation would lead the Israelis to resolve the conflict with nuclear weapons as their only viable option.


Add to this the fact that the Iranians have vowed to close off the straits of Hormuz and exert control over the Persian Gulf if attacked. U.S. military efforts to re-open the straits would take months. This would completely cut off the flow of gulf oil for months. The world price would skyrocket overnight and remain there for many months.


Given that the U.S. economy is utterly dependent upon oil and transportation, this massive price spike in gasoline would plunge the U.S. into an instant recession. The markets would crash overnight and lead a world collapse and therefore worldwide recession.


There would not just be gasoline price spikes but with 40% of world supply shut off, actual shortages. Human nature being what it is, this would lead to riots which would lead to anarchy at home.


With the U.S. military tied up in a 3-front war, the U.S. economy in collapse, and the U.S. population is violent disarray, how would the rest of the world's powers react? China and Russia have been war-gaming with one another for years and the Chinese have been building a massive military with the capability to shoot satellites out of space and aircraft carriers out of the water. This situation would present an ideal time for them to team up with Russia to reposition themselves as the new world superpower. Taiwan would clearly be toast as would the Ukraine, Bosnia, and most of eastern Europe.


Without the proactive help of the U.S., South American democracies would be powerless to resist the oil-rich advances of Chavez. Already slouching backward toward socialism and despotism, South America would find Venezuela and Cuba to be the norm and certainly the political and military leaders in the region.


So there you have it, worldwide recession if not outright economic collapse, violence at home, war in the middle east, Europe, and Asia, South America becoming more hostile to freedom and exercising its influence northward, and Africa is and would remain a basket case. Civilization as we know it collapses.


I can't say it would all be because Obama is elected. More accurately is would be due to decades of the prevalence of lefty ideas especially in the world of international diplomacy. I'm sure Neville Chamberlain would be proud.

At least we have hope.

1 comment:

Matt Shellenbarger said...

Hey Jason, it's Matt. Kinda scary. I really hope it doesn't come to that.